The Yatseniuk Phenomenon
May 7, 2009 – 10:13 amI have been undertaking research in Ukraine and one of the areas I have looked at is the “Yatseniuk phenomenon”. This is what I have found so far.
Most accept he is backed by RosUkrEnergo co-owner Dmytro Firtash. One person said to me “Just look at Inter. He is on there every day”. Firtash is reportedly an owner of Inter.
A KMA student confirmed that Firtash is one of the funders (with Pinchuk) of Yatseniuk. The students friends work inside the Yatseniuk campaign.
He is a TV candidate whose ratings have shot up because two oligarchs have promoted him extensively on their channels: Viktor Pinchuk on ICTV, STB, Novyi Kanal and Firtash on Inter. This resembles Pinchuk’s support for another TV project – the Winter Crop Generation party established for the 2002 elections and known as KOP in Ukrainian.
Yatseniuk has weak leadership skills, as seen in his chairmanship of parliament. Big business backing of Yatseniuk is to a) prevent Tymoshenko’s election victory b) to ensure a president is in place who can be easily manipulated.
Former President Leonid Kuchma is an enthusiastic supporter of Yatseniuk. Kuchma has described Tymoshenko in the past as a “fascist”.
Yatseniuk has been very conscpicuous in not stating what he stands for. As a former Yushchenko supporter said to me, “Yushchenko may be an air head but at least he has some views”. Yatseniuk seems to have none. In an election campaign he will have to state what he stands for.
As he has no regional structures, Yatseniuk will be totally reliant on state-administrative resources. These might be available in regions controlled by Viktor Baloga, but not in every Ukrainian region.
20 Responses to “The Yatseniuk Phenomenon”
Question:
You state that Yatseniuk can rely on “administrative resources” in regions controlled by Baloha.
Baloha is Yushchenko – according to Yushchenko’s own words.
Yushchenko is running for President, or so he has announced.
If Yatseniuk is funded by Firtash and Pinchuk, how is it that he could rely on administrative resources from Baloha?
Now, I understand that Yushchenko supported Firtash and the RosUkrEnergo corruption.
But still – the question remains.
By elmer on May 8, 2009
Yushchenko will stand in the elections but knows that Yatseniuk is the only candidate of the two who can defeat Tymoshenko. If he was to announce today that he would not be standing he would make himself into a total lameduck. That is the reasoning I have been told why he will not say that he will not be standing.
The key round will be round one. Yanukovych has no strong competition in eastern Ukraine and is certain to enter round 2. “Orange” Ukraine will have 4 candidates: Yushchenko, Yatseniuk, Grytsenko and Tymoshenko. Of the 4 the main battle to get into round 2 will be between Yatseniuk and Tymoshenko.
By Taras on May 8, 2009
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By Amoche on May 10, 2009
Sorry, I still don’t get how or why Baloha would provide “administrative resources” to Yatseniuk.
Side note: Not too long ago, Yushchenko said, in an interview, that he has “nothing personal” against Tymoshenko – it’s just a “difference in ideologies.”
By elmer on May 10, 2009
Baloga would support Yatseniuk as the only candidate who can stop Tymoshenko entering round 2. Yushchenko has no chance to enter round 2. Yatseniuk and Tymoshenko are competing for the same votes in western-central Ukraine.
Nothing personal? This is just not true. In Ukraine politics is very personal. Yushchenko detests Tymoshenko. Ideology is unimportant in Ukrainian politics and secondary to personal issues.
By Taras on May 10, 2009
Thanks.
So this is “Get Tymoshenko” – at any cost.
I knew you would enjoy my side note.
I’ve been trying to figure out the differences in “ideology.” So far – nothing.
What is extremely difficult for me to figure out is why Ukrainians can’t seem to find a way out of this circle of hell.
Short of leaving the country.
By elmer on May 10, 2009
Speaking of circles of hell -
I just saw an article in UNIAN – “Lytvyn is ‘confident’ that the Ukrainian Parliament won’t consider anti-crisis measures this week”.
Why? To avoid “conflicts.” Lytvyn says it’s better to wait until all “talks” are completed.”
What “talks”? He didn’t say.
Must be the talks about how to divide up all the loot from IMF.
By elmer on May 11, 2009
It is possible to trace financial support from Firtash to Yatsenuk. With 15% rating now he looks like “fresh” alternative to all three remaining real candidates, of which electorate is really tired. He can certainly intervene the game. At the same time one shall consider connection along the line Firtash-Chujchenko-Medvedev, while looking at Yatsenuk. This “kinder surprise” may be much more unpleasant than any other political project of Pinchuk. I still don’t believe that he is electable in Ukraine, but he certainly can tip the balance in January.
BTW, there is (unconfirmed yet) information about the new conflict between Youschenko and Baloga.
By Atytarenko on May 14, 2009
And that’s exactly the problem, Atytarenko.
Lutsenko gets support from Kluyev.
Yatseniuk gets support from Kuchma boys, Firtash, etc.
Ukrainian Pravda has an article today about how the Party of Regions has painted itself into a corner, with regard to Lustensko’s resignation and the upcoming Presidential elections (after the Constitutional Court’s ruling), and how Lytvyn – and the Commies, like Symonenko – won’t let Lutsenko resign, because they don’t want Parliament disbanded, because that means they would lose their posts.
And how the Party of Regions painted itself into a corner, and now has to unblock Parliament (they were trying to block Parliament in order to get it disbanded due to “nonfunctioning” for 30 days), because the Parliament needs to set a date for Presidential elections in January, or Yushchenko will remain president for life – there will be no presidential elections otherwise.
What a screwed up system.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2009/5/13/94557.htm
By elmer on May 14, 2009
I am still in Kyiv and asking this question of Yatseniuk-Firtash. The answer I always receive is that Firtash provides not financial resources but IN KIND support, such as free appearances on Ukraine’s most watched TV channel Inter. This is why Ukrainian analysts call Yatseniuk a “Teleyziynyi Projekt”. To pay for such appearances would cost you millions of dollars.
By Taras on May 14, 2009
Perhaps what should be considered here is the fact that Yatseniuk is gaining popularity directly due to Tymoshenko’s own inadequacies as it relates to her innefective governmental management skills. She is her own worst enemy. People have begun to realize that she will say or do anything to retain power. Blaming Yatseniuks popularity simply on the basis of his appearance on Inter is reaching to say the least. Give Ukrainians a little bit more credit, they don’t believe everything they see and hear on TV, which is evidenced by Tymoshenko’s fall in ratings.
By Wolodymir on May 14, 2009
“People have begun to realize that she will say or do anything to retain power.”
Oh, puuhleaze – how is this statement not applicable to the Party of Regions, or any of the other thugs that will do anything – and have done anything – to hang on to their little “warm place” in the “political elite”?
And – as far as Tymoshenko’s “ineffective government management” -
how can anyone manage a Ukrainian government in which players are always trying to torpedo each other for the sake of oligarchs?
She’s far more effective than anything that Yanukovych ever did.
Yanukovych and his cronies were really “effective” at stealing Mezhihyirya, the huge mansion estate of Yanukovych, and the Prykerchenska Black Sea lease for Akhmetov, and everything else they could find.
Coal mines blowing up? Party of Regions.
And so on.
By elmer on May 14, 2009
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By ordirl on May 14, 2009
Typical, seems Tymoshenko supporters have caught on to her strategy of blaming everyone else except herself. Just like it was Yushchenko who forced Lutsenko into a drunken stuper and coerced him into fighting with the German Polizei, right? LOL
By Wolodymir on May 14, 2009
Well, first of all, there are Kolomojsky’s money backing Lutsenko and Lytvyn. Let’s see what will Akhmetov say. So far he is really pissed off about Yabukovych. Basically, if you digg lonng enough and deep enough, sooner or later you will hit the same bad tooth in Ukrainian politics – Firtash.
Secongly, I have (now) some concerns about Frankfurt accident. Check “Ukr.Pravda” (for what is it worth nowdays):
1. How could all happen in the presence of the guy from the Embassy (who was obviously the enterpreteur)? What swearing are they talking about (in what language)?
2. Sending written report on such a *thing* is HIGHLY uncommon. It really is. This could be done ONLY in order to create the record and to give P.Reg. (or rather Baloga/Firtash) solid grounds for the scandal. If it the way how bureaucracy works. You simply don’t leave the trace on paper, especially in such a slippery situation. Just recollect the 400,000$ neckles accident in Belgium with Volkov.
3. Imagine for one sec, that someone, say – Kolesnikov, had arranged a tip-off to the Frankfurt border control, or to the airline, that “passanger Lutsenko” carries, say, drugs. Meanwhile Lutsenko takes son for terminal cancer treatment in Korea, while being stopped. Yes, he had *some* drink. What will happen? Exactly what happened. I’ve seen such *things* done to some athletes by fellow competitors.
And then yesterday’s scandal between Baloga and Youschenko. Not everything match well.
By Atytarenko on May 15, 2009
The resulting actions are all Lutsenko’s doing, no one poured Vodka down his throat, and no one forced him to behave like a drunken sailor on shore leave.
By Wolodymir on May 15, 2009
By no means I am saying that he was right. My point is that there may be much more to the story than pretty trivial situation of drunk Ukrainian official in Frankfurt. Looking at the consequences there sure is more.
By Atytarenko on May 15, 2009
well, well, well –
Balagan (Baloha) has resigned!!!
Good.
Now, if the courts could just be straightened out, as another step in the right direction:
http://blog.kievukraine.info/2009/05/despite-high-profile-arrests-corruption.html
By elmer on May 17, 2009
Onr down, few to go. And it still has to be signed, so don’d celebrate yet. IMHO, appointment of Ulianenko is a clear sign of mental retardation. She can be whomever, but not the party leader.
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