Taras Kuzio’s Blog

Yushchenko’s and Tymoshenko’s Strategies Remain Confusing

In a television debate on 2 November on Channel 5 Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko called for a second time in two weeks for the President to support the renewal of a broader orange coalition of the Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT), Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defence (OU-PSD) and the Volodymyr Lytvyn bloc that would have a comfortable majority of 248 deputies. If a coalition was created pre-term elections, planned for 14 December but likely to be postponed until late January or February, would become unnecessary. Tymoshenko believes that, ‘if there is good will on the part of the President a coalition can be created tomorrow’.

The former orange coalition has voted together in support of the Presidents Anti-Crisis package and the IMF loan in the last week of November. The Party of Regions and Communist Party did not vote for these two issues. But, the former orange coalition remains divided over voting for the provision of financial resources for pre-term elections which has only received backing from the Party of Regions and the pro-presidential half of OU-PSD giving it insufficient votes to be adopted.

On the basis of the vote by the former orange coalition Tymoshenko expressed guarded optimism that the orange coalition could be revived. The Prime Minister said, ‘on the basis of those factions who voted this is a good signal that the democratic coalition can be revived and parliament can function a lot more effectively than it could in the previous few months’.

In a television on 19 October the Prime Minister said it would be ‘reckless’ to hold pre-term elections during a global crisis. She suggested instead that a government of national unity be formed while the crisis remained a threat. ‘Such a coalition should act until such time as the threat of financial and economic collapse is removed from our country and the world at large. After that, you can have any elections you like’.

In the Channel 5 debate on 2 November, Tymoshenko said that she would be willing to, ‘fulfill all of the demands made by the President. I am ready to sit at a table for negotiations’. Asked if Tymoshenko would be willing to give up any presidential ambitions she replied, ‘All serious proposals put forward by the President will be taken on board, accepted so that we can move ahead’.

Tymoshenko believes that a new coalition is being blocked by the half of OU-PSD controlled by the President. A parliamentary faction needs a simple majority vote to join a coalition which in the case of OU-PSD would require 37 (out of 72) deputies. Approximately 30 deputies reportedly support Tymoshenko’s call for a new coalition.

Tymoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s strategies are both baffling, but for different reasons.

Opinion polls and Ukraine’s history show that Tymoshenko could resign herself to Yushchenko’s demand for pre-term elections that would most likely push her replacing the position of Prime Minister with head of the opposition. Ukraine’s history shows that head of the opposition does not ruin your electoral odds. In the 1994 and 2004 elections the head of the opposition (Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko respectively) succeeded in winning the presidency. BYuT, then in opposition, also increased their support in the 2006 elections to 23 percent more than three times more than BYuT received in 2002. Most political leaders would prefer to be in opposition, rather than heading a government, during a severe crisis that require unpopular policies that could negatively affect their popularity.

Every opinion poll has also shown that BYuT is likely to again increase its position in parliament in pre-term elections. Polls show that with support increasing to maybe 35 percent, BYuT could have the same number or a larger number of seats than the Party of Regions. Tymoshenko therefore - unlike the President - has nothing to fear from pre-term elections.

Tymoshenko’s implied offer to not run in the presidential elections is also baffling because it will open the door to a victory by Viktor Yanukovych. Only Tymoshenko can defeat Yanukovych in a second round presidential contest. Poll show that Yushchenko would lose to Yanukovych. Two polls in October gave Yanukovych and Tymoshenko roughly equal support in a second round of between 31-33 percent in one poll and 37-39 in another. In a second round contest between Yanukovych and Yushcenko, Yanukovych would win by 44 to 15 percent or 36 to 13 percent.

In addition, 72 percent of Ukrainians believe that Yushcenko should not stand in the presidential elections. Meanwhile, a striking 82 percent have no confidence in the President.

Postponing or canceling pre-term elections would save the orange coalition. Going for pre-term elections would permanently destroy any unity in orange forces. Tymoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s strategies are different but only one seeks to preserve unity forged during the orange revolution.