Taras Kuzio’s Blog

Hands up for Political Stability and No More Elections

Four years of President Viktor Yushchenko’s administration have produced constant instability. Lets take a stock of the “score sheet”: a popular uprising in the orange revolution, four governments, two (maybe three) elections, one major constitutional change, two political crises and a near violent clash between different law enforcement agencies.
Polls tell us that Ukrainians have had enough of crises and enough of elections. So, how do we stop this cycle of instability and elections?
After all, it is obvious to everybody that Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko will never get on. Their personalities clash and I also believe that the president has a problem working with women and treating them as his equals, especially if they have a strong personality.
If the last four years tell us anything it is that a BYuT-Our Ukraine coalition is impossible and that Our Ukraine are split over entering a coalition with Regions. Then maybe the only solution for stability is a BYuT-Regions coalition (even though I do not like the idea)?
This at least will be undertaken with one orange force in charge of the government (Tymoshenko). Such a coalition of equals would be very different to the doubly humiliating coalition organised by the President for Our Ukraine in August 2006 when Viktor Yanukovych became prime minister and the Communists were included (for the first time) in a coalition.
The other alternative to halt the cycle of instability and elections would be to include both orange forces in a coalition with Regions. That way, neither orange force could accuse the other of “betrayal” if it joins a coalition with Regions.
Orange coalitions have proven unstable (especially if Viktor Baloga remains in place, as seems likely) while Our Ukraine is divided over joining a grand coalition. The only two alternative coalitions with the current parliamentary configuration are grand (BYuT-Regions) or very grand (BYuT-NU-NS-Regions).
The mathematics are easy. Accomplishing the task is far more difficult.