Taras Kuzio’s Blog

Russia Takes One Step Closer To A New Cold War

The Russian parliaments unanimous endorsement of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a dangerous step towards conflict in the former USSR and another step towards a new Cold War. In both instances Russia loses.

Western and Ukrainian apologists of Russia’s new imperialism can no longer say, as they did until recently, that the Russian parliament undertook policies that were not always endorsed by the president.

This was the argument that was used under President Borys Yeltsin. Under President or Prime minister Vladimir Putin this argument is bogus. The Russian parliament is no longer an independent institution and since Russia’s last two elections both houses of parliament are controlled by the executive as part of Russia’s managed democracy and militocracy. RUSSIAN PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV’S RECOGNITION OF SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIAS INDEPENDENCE IS PROOF OF THIS. WHAT NEXT, THE CRIMEA?

After recovering from its nationalistic hangover Russia, in promoting territorial expansionism towards Georgia, will lose the new Cold War.

Russia’s de facto annexation opens up a pandorah’s box in the CIS and within the Russian Federation itself. If South Ossetia and Abkhazia can be independent then why not Trans-Dniestr, Nagorno Karabakh or Chechnya? Russia’s relations with its CIS neighbours will deteriorate leading to a negative impact on Russia’s hopes for CIS integration.

Russia’s use of Kosovo as a precedent for South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a home goal as the Chechens could logically argue why cannot they also have independence?

The loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia will make it easier for Georgia to enter NATO. Just like the loss of Kosovo has made it easier for Serbia to join the EU.

Russia’s imperialism in Georgia will also return support levels in Ukraine for NATO membership to their pre-Iraqi invasion levels when a third of Ukraine’s population backed membership. Obtaining 51% in a referendum is easier to accomplish when your starting base is 33%, rather than 20%. Any attempt at repeating the Putin Doctrine in the Crimea would increase support in Ukraine for NATO membership to over a third.

Russia will lose out in any Cold War confrontation with the West, as the USSR lost in the 1990s when it competed with Ronald Reagan’s USA. Russia’s highly corrupt autocratic regime has neither the resources, ideology or allies that the USSR possessed, factors which still did not prevent the Soviet Union from losing the Cold War and disintegrating. Perhaps Russia’s new rulers should be advised to watch the recent US film “Charlie’s War” on US support to the Afghan freedom fighters in the 1980s.
Russia’s new imperialism will increase the chances that Senator John McCain will win this years US elections, the candidate least liked by Moscow.

The near unanimous Western criticism of Russian imperialism in Georgia (even the passive EU has called an extraordinary meeting on 1 September!) has pushed many non-committal NATO members towards support for Ukrainian and Georgian inclusion into NATO Membership Action Plans at the December review meeting.

Russia’s new imperialism is the last stage of the disintegration of the Soviet empire that was delayed during the Yeltsin era by many years of alcoholism, mass corruption and a brutal invasion of Chechnya. As in the 1980s, Russia will ultimately lose again and face its own disintegration.