It now seems more clear than ever that the history never ends, regardless of what has been predicted by Fukuyama and other libertarian thinkers. We are definitely no more in the logic of liberalization/democratization. Ukraine is turning away from democracy and that seems to be the natural course of events.
If Tymochenko wins the election in 2009, we will have a strong left-oriented populist government, heavily leaning to Moscow, in brief, a ukrainian version of the Lukashenka regime.
If it doesn’t, what cannot be achieved in the democratic way, we will have a “coalition of national unity”, headed by Yuschenko, which will try to combine the popular nationalistic support with the support of the financial-industrial groups, certainly oriented towards Moscow, but repudiated by the Tymoshenko’s populism.
We definitely don’t want to be confronted with the situation when we have to make a choice between “Chavez” and “Pinochet”, but unfortunately it’s possible that we couldn’t avoid it. But at least, the second scenario, whatever is the price we have to pay for, will let us preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and will prevent us from getting back in a USSR.
That is why I cannot understand those willing to back Tymo against Youschenko. Do you think removing oligarchs from power will make Ukraine more prosperous economically? Not necessarily. Do you think that “bringing the State back in” in order to rally against the rich and against the ancient kuchmists will make ukrainian society more just and fair? Not necessarily. Moreover, in doing so, Tymoshenko will adopt a selective approach, which will not be in principle better than that of Yuschenko.