Georgia on my Mind
August 9, 2008 – 11:05 amGeorgia’s war with Russia over the separatist enclave of South Ossetia is bad news for Ukraine in three ways.
If Georgia loses the conflict with Russia, or is forced into a humiliating withdrawal from South Ossetia, the Mikhail Saakashvili regime could be overthrown and replaced by a pro-Russian regime. Pro-Russian Georgian leaders (implicated in assassination attempts on former President Shevardnadze) are waiting in Moscow for such an opportunity to return. The removal of Saakashvili would be a personal blow to President Viktor Yushchenko.
The removal of the Saakashvili regime would destroy the already fragile GUAM regional group. Uzbekistan left it in 2005 and Moldova led by a Communist president willing to negotiate deals with Russia over another separatist enclave – Trans-Dniestr – has become a neutral and passive member of GUAM. A pro-Russian Georgian regime would not remain in GUAM and it would therefore collapse, demolishing plans unveiled at a June Kyiv summit for an energy corridor from Azerbaijan to Ukraine and Central-Eastern Europe.
The most important impact of the conflict would be to postpone indefinetly Ukraine and Georgia’s plans to join NATO. NATO baulked at its April Bucharest summit from inviting both countries into Membership Action Plans (MAP’s), following strong German and French hostility, but did instead offer the prospect of future membership. In December NATO Foreign Ministers are set to review Georgia and Ukraine’s “progress” towards fulfilling hazy and confusing criteria.
With political instability in the orange coalition set to deepen as the presidential elections loom (where Yushchenko sees Yulia Tymoshenko as his main protagonist) and Georgia at war with Russia over South Ossetia (and maybe Abkhazia) NATO Foreign Ministers will not recommend that NATO extend invitations to Ukraine and Georgia to enter MAP’s.
The US (and maybe NATO) will strongly back Georgia in its conflict, although George W Bush is a lame duck president and the US in the midst itself of regime change. The biggest disappointment – as always – will be the EU and the OSCE which will be pathetically inept, passive and russophile in their policy proposals.
2 Responses to “Georgia on my Mind”
The only missing piece of the puzzle is Ukraine. Unfortunately, it will not take too much to bring it back to the sphere of Russian domination, especially given that Tymoshenko seems to have made her choices.
It now seems more clear than ever that the history never ends, regardless of what has been predicted by Fukuyama and other libertarian thinkers. We are definitely no more in the logic of liberalization/democratization. Ukraine is turning away from democracy and that seems to be the natural course of events.
If Tymochenko wins the election in 2009, we will have a strong left-oriented populist government, heavily leaning to Moscow, in brief, a ukrainian version of the Lukashenka regime.
If it doesn’t, what cannot be achieved in the democratic way, we will have a “coalition of national unity”, headed by Yuschenko, which will try to combine the popular nationalistic support with the support of the financial-industrial groups, certainly oriented towards Moscow, but repudiated by the Tymoshenko’s populism.
We definitely don’t want to be confronted with the situation when we have to make a choice between “Chavez” and “Pinochet”, but unfortunately it’s possible that we couldn’t avoid it. But at least, the second scenario, whatever is the price we have to pay for, will let us preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and will prevent us from getting back in a USSR.
That is why I cannot understand those willing to back Tymo against Youschenko. Do you think removing oligarchs from power will make Ukraine more prosperous economically? Not necessarily. Do you think that “bringing the State back in” in order to rally against the rich and against the ancient kuchmists will make ukrainian society more just and fair? Not necessarily. Moreover, in doing so, Tymoshenko will adopt a selective approach, which will not be in principle better than that of Yuschenko.
By Serhiy on Aug 20, 2008
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By Julian Floyd on Nov 12, 2008