Taras Kuzio’s Blog

Yulia is the Real Victor in the Elections

Before these elections it was common to hear that they would not decide anything. That after the elections everything would return to the same place as it was before the elections.
The election results show that this is not true. Last night in the Yulia Tymoshenko election centre in the newly completed Hyatt Hotel the atmosphere was of victory and an end to years of orange disappointment and disillusionment. The centre was packed with journalists, diplomats, supporters and consultants.
BYuT had hoped for a result that would be in the late 20s but, on the basis of exit polls and the latest results released by the CVK, they are likely to be in the early 30s. BYuT is either in first place or only two percent behind Regions. Our Ukraine and Regions have approximately the same vote as last year.
BYuT has enjoyed a meteoric 400 percent rise in support from only 8% in 2002 to 23 last year and 32-34 this year. This is the big story from this year’s elections.
In achieving this success BYuT have saved the Orange Revolution. As I recently wrote in Ukrayinska Pravda the elections would decide the fate of the orange revolution. A bad election result (such as the return of Yanukovych as head of the Anti-Crisis coalition) would have made Yushchenko a lame duck president. And he could have forgotten about a second term.
Dmytro Potekhin, director of the European Strategy Group NGO (and head of the ZNAYU NGO in the 2004 elections) told me that Yushchenko has a very blunt choice: either to make Yulia Tymoshenko his Prime Minister or he will become a “political corpse”.
Tymoshenko’s victory is therefore a second victory for the orange revolution and a chance to re-energise orange voters. It gives Ukraine another chance to introduce the reforms and programme that millions of Ukrainians stood on the freezing maidan for 17 days for in 2004.
Yushchenko’s historical legacy, the last two years of his first term and re-election are even more in the hands of Tymoshenko. If he fails to use this chance, or worse still he repeats last years mistakes, then he is finished and nobody will attend the panakhyda (requiem).
Yushchenko’s political force – NUNS – did not improve its popularity on last year because it took upon itself all of the negativity that voters harboured towards Yushchenko. Ukrainian voters did not believe the election rhetoric of NUNS (zakon odne dlia vsikh [the law is the same for everybody] or battling corruption).
For Regions a spell in opposition will be good for them and Ukraine. Regions will only change into a normal democratic party if they are in opposition. If allowed into government they will continue their old ways, as seen in Akhmetov’s corrupt privatization of Dniproenergo that resembles the privatization of Kryvorizhstal in 2004 when Yanukovych was first in government.
Finally, the election results have changed Ukraine’s political landscape. BYuT is Ukraine’s only all-national party that has built on its success in eastern Ukraine last year. BYuT’s reported 25 percent showing in Kharkiv is a major breakthrough. Orange has now penetrated blue territory and secured popular support there.