Taras Kuzio’s Blog

Ukraine is to Hold Elections – But Will They Change Anything?

Ukraine will (again!) hold elections next month. Many of the people I talk to seem to believe that they will not decide much. One wonders what BBC Ukrainian service readers think?

Reaction in Washington to the April decree disbanding parliament was, to say the least, mixed. One group, maybe more pro-orange, said “Finally Yushchenko has shown some determination!”.

Another group, maybe one more closely supportive of the grand coalition, saw his decree as unnecessary because the anti-crisis coalition would have never obtained a 300 constitutional majority. And it was a threat to the rule of law and constitution.

This question we can leave for future historians. The more important question today is what will the elections change?

If I were to meet President Yushchenko in person I would ask him only one question: ‘Did you go on holiday in the first two years of your presidency and then return to find not everything to your satisfaction?’ The first two years of the orange president were largely wasted, especially the first year under the old constitution when the president had extensive powers.

The make up of the newly elected parliament will not change that decisively except that there will be four, not five, parties. A priest will have to be called to do a pana khyda over the Socialist Party.

Which brings me to probably the main outcome of this year’s elections. They will also decide who will be Ukraine’s next president. Will Yushchenko follow Leonid Kravchuk in only serving one term or Leonid Kuchma in serving two?

Indeed, the more moral question is does Yushchenko, after wasting his first two years, deserve to be re-elected for a second term? How do we not know that if he is re-elected he will not again go on an extended holiday break in 2010-2012, as he did in 2005-2006?

Ukraine needs a rishuche president. Of this I have no doubt. In reaching this conclusion I am influenced by my personal preferences (I fully admit that I admire Margaret Thatcher and Nicolas Sarkozy), I know Ukraine’s problems and what is required for Ukraine to integrate into Europe. Plus, it is pretty obvious to me which Ukrainian political leader is both rishuche and attractive.

Sarkozy visited the U.S. recently and flew home for an important meeting but then returned to the U.S. to continue his meetings there. That is what I call rishuchist!

That is why I remain suspicious of Yushchenko’s motives. Is he only now rishuche because he wants to maintain his hold on to power?

The mandate of an orange president did not just come from the ballot box but also from the one fifth of Ukraine’s population who participated in the orange revolution. They gave Yushchenko a mandate for CHANGE. It is the lack of change that has disillusioned many Ukrainians, particularly young people.

Many of the president’s proposals look surprisingly similar to Kuchma’s in the April 2001 referendum: a bicameral parliament, lifting immunity from deputies and reducing the number of deputies. Party of Regions will never go for a bicameral Rada as this would mean each oblast, regardless of population size, would send the same number of Senators. Ternopil would have equality with Donetsk.

In principle I have no problem in removing parliamentary immunity. But, how will this help overcome Ukraine’s general entrenched immunity for all Ukrainian elites (inside and outside parliament) from criminal prosecution?

Senior Ukrainian officials have never gone to jail in Ukraine regardless of whether they had immunity inside the Rada or did not because they were outside parliament. Only 3 senior Ukrainians currently sit in jail – two in Germany and one in the US. All 3 were foolish to not stay in Ukraine where they could have continued to sit in parliament or run businesses without any legal problems.

After this years elections the same poorly reformed constitution remains in place. Yushchenko and Our Ukraine-Samoborona agree with the three parties in the anti-crisis coalition to not hold a referendum on the constitution on the same day as the elections.

In November 2005 the Constitutional Court ruled that a referendum should be held on the constitutional changes but this was always ignored. Only BYuT upholds the constitutional court’s ruling in supporting a constitutional referendum.

Lets remember that the president has been unable to work with two of his three prime ministers. Will he now be able to work with either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko?

A final problem is the often repeated claim that Yushchenko’s mandate was weak as his opponent received only 8% fewer votes. This is not a serious argument. Polls in the last years of Kuchma’s rule showed that two thirds to three quarters of Ukrainians wanted change. In other words, a portion of Yanukovych voters (maybe what we call floating or soft voters) also desired change.

In reality Yushchenko’s mandate was far higher than that for Sarkozy in France who won only 6% more votes than his Socialist rival (53 to 47%). In the U.S. Bush was elected with even more low majorities of only 3% in 2004 (51 to 48%) and with only a 1% victory in 2000 over his Democratic Party challengers (see the funny video here).

Yushchenko therefore had a large mandate for change that he has not implemented. I doubt whether he would do so if re-elected in two years time.

This is also true of Our Ukraine ministers who went into government and now head Our Ukraine-Samoborona. Despite lots of election rhetoric today I do not remember Yuriy Lutsenko adopting radical changes inside the Interior Ministry.

Two policies that he should have adopted immediately should have been to replace the ridiculous name “Militsya” with “Police” and return the Internal Troops to becoming a National Guard, as most of their units were in the 1990s. Countries do not get invited into Europe if they have Militsyas or troops designed to put down their own populations.

I remain doubtful if this year’s elections will change Ukraine. The only manner in which the change promised by the orange revolution could be implemented is if an attractive lady is returned as prime minister and Yushchenko supports her policies designed to implement change (rather than obstruct them as he tried to do while he was on holiday in 2005).

If she does not become prime minister again this year then she deserves to replace Yushchenko as president. Yulia gave him his chance when she did not run in 2004 but, as the Americans say, he blew it.

Yulia could become Ukraine’s Thatcher or Sarkozy – Yushchenko will always be a Chirac. Maybe a woman can do what a man could never.