The Unfinished Revolution
April 17, 2007 – 12:34 amIt seems impossible – even two years after the Orange Revolution – to completely close the book on this important historical event. The current (or should I say latest) crisis in Ukraine is merely the unfinished Orange Revolution.
In the last month the Orange Revolution has seemed to dominate my activities. At the annual conference of the British Association for Slavic and East European Studies in Cambridge at the end of March I attended two panels on the Orange Revolution organized by Professor Stephen White of Glasgow University. Professor White gave one of the five talks on the two panels. Just so the reader does not think that all the panelists were pro-Orange, one Nottingham professor gave a talk from the Blue point of view. There are a few Blues in the West.
The two panels could not have known that a day later on the day I flew into Kyiv President Yushchenko would sign a decree dissolving parliament. It was a good job that the decree was not signed a day earlier as many of us might have thought it was an April Fools Day joke. I never believed that the President would take this step. But, during Easter week Ukrainians always find their pysanky.
Professor White edits the Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics (JCSTP). In April a special issue of JCSTP edited by myself on the Orange Revolution was published (it will soon be available on www.taraskuzio.net). Again, this was another strange coincidence.
Last week the Association for the Study of Nationalities held its annual convention in New York’s Columbia University. The latest crisis was the subject of a special panel organized by the American Association for Ukrainian Studies (www.ukrainianstudies.org/). Adrian Karatnycky and myself were two of the speakers.
In reality, Adrian, whom I have known since the early 1980s when he worked at the AFL-CIO trade union organization and then at Freedom House, had on this occasion only some different views to my own on the latest crisis. As President of the Orange Circle, which was established with Yushchenko’s support in 2005, Adrian is in an uncomfortable position to criticize the many mistakes made by Yushchenko in the run up to this crisis (unlike myself).
After a bitter exchange of letters in the Ukrainian Weekly last year Adrian ands myself now had a beer in New York and a coffee in Washington. Maybe it takes a crisis to bring old allies back together.
Our main area of disagreement rested on the question of whether businessmen inside the Party of Regions were likely to evolve towards a more democratic profile. I have a negative view of the likelihood of this evolution while Adrian, forever the optimist, is more positive.
The latest crisis is a product of at least five strategic mistakes made by Yushchenko in the first two years of his presidency. These have been heavily written about by me and I won’t go into them here.
But, one person proved himself to be intellectually challenged and that was Yanukovych. He could have stayed as prime minister with a stable coalition for four more years but his desire for revenge and insatiable quest for power was his undoing.
As I said in New York, Yanukovych can attempt to poke Tymoshenko just once in the eye. He may be lucky to get away with it but will never get a second chance.
With Yushchenko it takes at least twenty pokes in the eye by Yanukovych before he becomes angry. But, once he does he becomes determined.
The problem Yushchenko has is that he is wrong to assume that he has full Western support. This is why a comparison between Ukraine’s 2007 crisis and Russia in 1993 is wrong. In the latter the West supported President Borys Yeltsin against the red-brown Russian parliament. The US and West is disillusioned with Yushchenko because of two years of wasted opportunities, strategic mistakes and in fighting and therefore is more cautious about fully backing him. The US is therefore supporting “Orange valuesâ€, but not necessarily Yushchenko.
The US is still unsure if a new election is the right answer? After all, Orange Revolution allies won last year but failed to create a coalition (the US pushed hard for an Orange coalition).
Two thirds of Ukrainians now believe that a new election is the right answer. And they are probably right for three reasons.
First, it means that the Socialists (and maybe the Communists) will not be in the new parliament. Second, it’s the end of the Anti-Crisis coalition and a return to the choice of either Orange or Grand coalition (or one that combines both). The Anti-Crisis coalition, the most anti-democratic of the three coalitions, is the only one with Yanukovych as prime minister. Third, the national democrats have re-taken control of Our Ukraine which now resembles Our Ukraine in 2002, not in 2006 when it was controlled by Liubi Druzi.
Ukraine is not Russia, as Leonid Kuchma’s 2004 book was called. Ukraine is also not Georgia. Nobody will win a Georgian-style super majority in Ukraine because of regionalism and therefore election results will be between 45-55 percent for Orange and Blue with every percentage vote important.
So, expect an early election in late June and maybe this time an Orange coalition is put in place. The unfinished revolution might then be completed.
12 Responses to “The Unfinished Revolution”
Dear Dr. Kuzio,
Extremely gladdened to hear that at least some allies are back together (while very much aggrieved that NSNU and BYuT probably will have separate election lists.)
Yanukovych is constrained by the culture in which he operates (I mean really did he have to win the Pres. election by a million votes? which led to his undoing.) And in that hierarchical power structure, “yes, there can only be one.”
Yes, certain parties will lose – but just as certain some will gain and Vitrenko will leap the barrier into Parliament.
The Orange Coalition will only happen if Yulia is given the PM slot, which is a tad bit problematic based on her previous tenure.
Signed,
Truth Teller and as such always in your corner.
PS I am often reminded of the following phrase, when I think of how it seems that the most deserving are not always the recipients of the honors which they have time and time again earned.
“If you want gratitude: get a dog.”
By A Very Concerned Ukrainian on Apr 17, 2007
It is not certain that the Progressive Socialists will enter parliament. In one way I would prefer them to as Regions would find it more difficult to create a coalition with them (and more embarrassing) than with the Communists and Socialists.
The elections most likely mean to Yanukovych Prime Minister and either an orange or grand coalition (or combination of the two). These outcomes in of themselves mean the elections are worth holding as the Anti-Crisis coalition is the worst outcome to the 2006 elections.
Yulia Tymoshenko will continue her great performance in last years elections. It was always my concern that there would not be a solid Our Ukraine presence. This now seems to be rectified with a mini revolution inside Our Ukraine.
P.S. I prefer cats to dogs. I have a brother and sister: Yulia and Oscar (Wilde). I could not name the brother Viktor.
By Taras on Apr 17, 2007
What do you know of Romania? and why is it their policy to issue passports to citizens of foreign countries whose govts. do not allow for dual-citizenship? for ex. Ukraine, Moldova.
Why is Romania acting as a ‘destabilizing’ influence? Their policy regarding policy is so loose that all one needs is an address (identifying that they resided in a Romanian area of the foreign country) and money.
Who is a towering expert on Romania and its inner workings? (want to research)
By Hello on Apr 17, 2007
Why would Vitrenko form a coalition with PoR? when though unsupported have been working with BYuT who is sure to win big numbers?
I do dislike the following citation but their hold on eng. lang. news has increased with 5kanal packing it in (no more eng.) —-
http://en.for-ua.com/news/2007/03/27/123122.html
Which makes sense if she believed the following –
““Yulia Vladimirovna has a huge capital and immense information resource. She will not leave alone neither the President nor the parliament. She will prepare for the presidential elections to depose Yushchenko and Yanukovich. That is, no peace is to be expected in Ukraine for the coming years,†Vitrenko commented.” 08/04/2006 –
http://www.regnum.ru/english/684000.html
And interestingly enough — but not surprising —
“Mr. Kurochkin was known for establishing the so-called “Russian club†in Kyiv, openly supporting Viktor Yanukovych. Particularly the Russia-oriented initiatives of Mr.Yanukovych were announced at the club meetings, and they included the idea of dual nationality. During parliamentary elections of 2006 Kurochkin supported (financially as well) Nataliya Vitrenko Block.”
http://cpcfpu.org.ua/en/projects/foreignpolicy/week_theme/011006/
By Hello on Apr 17, 2007
The Progressive Socialists, like the Communists, hate Yushchenko more than they hate Regions. I do not believe everything I read in the Ukrainian media, including rumours of cooperation between BYuT and the PS.
By Taras Kuzio on Apr 18, 2007
it seems the strategy now by the Oranges is to have a OR sequel until there is a new election and to count on letting their lights shine and garnering strong public support for the new election to trump the vacillations of the CC.
My real question is whether La Russophobe is right that the West shd ban Russia from the G8 and WTO unless they permit peaceful protests in their country and do not interfere with Ukraine?
dlw
By dlw on Apr 18, 2007
The West will hardly ever find a pretext to remove Russia from G8. Especially on questions of interfering in Ukraine (or elswhere). The only possibility of this happening is if Putin changes the constitution to stay in power in 2008.
As to the WTO this is easier. It only takes 1 WTO country to refuse to sign an agreement with Russia to halt its progress to membership.
By Taras on Apr 18, 2007
But the mention of the possibility by Canada and its discussion could prevent Putin from dissolving the Constitution?
I’m sure you agree that perhaps suspending WTO entry til after the elections in Ukraine/Russia wd at least give the opposition in Russia more openness to express their dismay about its democratic backsliding and keep Russia subdued ’bout Ukraine…?
dlw
By dlw on Apr 18, 2007
let’s say theoretically the CC, for whatever reason, rules that Yuschenko violated the Constitution by dissolving parliament and calling for new elections. How significant is it that Yuschenko has publicly vowed to honor the court’s decision? I don’t think the OR-crowd could maintain a credible threat to have an OR rally if the president/EU were officially throwing in the towel…
I guess it wd then be up to whatever “elections” NU cooked up to defuse the hypothetical situation?
I’m asking, not to bother you, but because, while it seems things are sitting pretty right now, the CC has the potential to mess things up, largely because, IMHO, Yuschenko has officially said that they matter and (so far) doesn’t seem willing to replace the CC with fresh judges.
dlw
By dlw on Apr 19, 2007
a frequent commenter at Orange Ukraine, IIU(Invest in Umbrellas), has commented that BYuT and NSNU’s failure to be at the parliament is giving the NU the opportunity to grab as much of Ukraine’s property as they can in the coming month. Is this a plausible concern and if so wouldn’t it be best for them to remain in parliament so as to check such theft?
dlw
By dlw on Apr 19, 2007
If the Constitutional Court rules against Yushchenko this could be the end of Yushchenko and the move towards a parliamentary republic. Businessmen in the factions flock to the strongest personality. That is why I doubt there will be a straight forward clean court decision but a political ruling that might try and satisfy both sides.
By Taras on Apr 19, 2007
Who controls the nuclear sector in Ukraine? And how much of this is jockeying for position when the really big contracts come rolling in? as Russia will need help with building up nuclear reactors both floating and static.
By Hello on Apr 22, 2007